Вот отсюда:
Три ядерные державы у берегов Ирана
Тем временем в Ормузском проливе все чудесатее и чудесатее. Иран, Россия и Китай решили 1 и 2 февраля провести совместные военные учения. Их боевые корабли будут находиться между авианосной группой флота США и Персидским заливом. То есть в одной точке на мировой карте соберутся три ядерные державы, если не считать Иран.
Сейчас корабли подходят в район маневров, которые должны пройти в ближайшие воскресенье и понедельник. И все это происходит на фоне переброски в регион дополнительных американских сил в рамках очевидной подготовки ударов по Ирану.
Именно поэтому трёхсторонние учения не выглядят рутинными маневрами, которые мы проводим регулярно. Это в том числе определенный политический сигнал, демонстрирующий, что нестабильность в этой точке планеты затрагивает интересы России и Китая.
https://www.vesti.ru/article/4896386
Намечается противостояние - кто первый сморгнет.
Grok has the following analysis for this situation:
The article you shared from Vesti.ru appears to reference reports of planned joint naval exercises between Russia, Iran, and China, positioned near the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened US military presence in the region. However, based on recent confirmations from multiple sources, the details seem to blend two separate events: a unilateral Iranian IRGC Navy live-fire exercise scheduled for February 1-2 in the Strait of Hormuz, and a trilateral "Maritime Security Belt" drill with Russia and China that's now delayed to mid- or late February in the northern Indian Ocean/Sea of Oman area.
### Key Clarifications on the Exercises
- **IRGC's Solo Exercise (February 1-2, Strait of Hormuz)**: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy is conducting a two-day live-fire drill starting today in the Strait of Hormuz. This involves hundreds of fast attack craft, missile vessels, and possibly drone carriers like the Shahid Bagheri, deployed near US assets such as the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group in the Arabian Sea. The move is seen as a deterrent against potential US strikes, especially given ongoing tensions over Iran's nuclear program, regional proxies, and recent escalations. Satellite imagery confirms IRGC assets are in position off Bandar Abbas, emphasizing Iran's asymmetric naval tactics for rapid, high-impact operations in confined waters. This isn't a joint event—Russia and China are not participating here.
- **Trilateral "Maritime Security Belt" Exercise (Delayed to Mid/Late February, Northern Indian Ocean/Sea of Oman)**: The eighth edition of this annual drill, initiated in 2019, was initially rumored for early February but has been postponed. Iranian media now reports it will occur in mid-February, involving Iran's regular Navy, IRGC units, and naval forces from China and Russia.
Focus areas include maritime security, search-and-rescue, and tactical coordination, but no live-fire elements have been specified. Russian and Chinese state media haven't fully confirmed participation yet, and reports indicate their ships won't arrive until mid-February at the earliest, effectively calling off any immediate joint maneuvers.
The location is broader—not directly in the Strait of Hormuz but extending into the Indian Ocean—avoiding direct confrontation with US forces in the Persian Gulf.
### Broader Context and Political Signaling
These activities come against a backdrop of US military buildup, including additional carrier groups and troop deployments, in response to Iranian-backed attacks on US interests and threats of strikes on Iran itself. The IRGC's presence near US ships heightens risks of miscalculation, as any incident could escalate rapidly—three nuclear powers (US, Russia, China) are indirectly facing off in a vital chokepoint for global oil trade. Iran has also deployed submarines (Fateh- and Ghadir-class) for ambush and mine-laying capabilities in the area, further complicating navigation.
From a geopolitical angle, the trilateral aspect signals deepening ties between Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing as a counterweight to US influence.It's not just routine; it underscores shared interests in regional stability (or instability that challenges Western dominance), especially with ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and US sanctions on all three.However, the delay suggests caution—neither Russia (focused on Ukraine) nor China (prioritizing Taiwan Straits) wants a full-blown crisis here right now.
If this is unfolding as reported, expect real-time updates today; the IRGC drill could involve demonstrations of missile launches or drone ops. For live reactions, X discussions highlight the "three nuclear powers" narrative, but many note the postponement of the joint part. If you have a specific angle (e.g., implications for oil prices or US response), let me know for deeper dives.
Поглубже нырнуть в вопрос - это я тебя, Грока, потом попрошу. Пока мне и этого хватает.
No comments:
Post a Comment